Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Video - Tomcat tribute

I'm going to miss seeing F-14s pulling G's over NAS where-ever.

Lifted the video link off of Neptunus Lex's post "Shameless self-promotion".

Now it's off to the boneyard for the F-14s

A great and successful aircraft.

Updated at 18:15 to correct bonehead typos.

Tuesday, March 21, 2006

The Great New England Hurricane of 2006,7,8...?

I've lived in Southern New England for most of my life and the Great Hurricane of 1938 is a historical fact not to be taken lightly, but it seems that ever couple of years someone says this is the year it's going to happen again.

Hurricane (Source: NASA)

On the heals of the year of Katrina, AccuWeather.com is taking their turn at predicting the next great New England hurricane and saying it could become the greatest natural disaster in U.S History. From the linked AccuWeather:

"The Northeast is staring down the barrel of a gun," said Joe Bastardi, Chief Forecaster of the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center. "The Northeast coast is long overdue for a powerful hurricane, and with the weather patterns and hydrology we're seeing in the oceans, the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall in the Northeast is not a question of if but when."

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center research meteorologists have identified weather cycles that indicate which U.S. coastal areas are most susceptible to landfalls. "If you examine past weather cycles that have occurred in the Atlantic, you will see patterns of storms," added Ken Reeves, Expert Senior Meteorologist and Director of Forecasting Operations at AccuWeather.com. "Determination of where we are in the cycle has enabled AccuWeather.com meteorologists to accurately predict hurricane activity in Florida in 2004 and along the Gulf Coast last year. There are indications that the Northeast will experience a hurricane larger and more powerful than anything that region has seen in a long time."

Watching the first video report link at the bottom of the AccuWeather page seems to sensationalize this story. The Meteorologist reports that the hurricane barrier in Providence will save the city but backup any storm surge in the bay compounding problems for communities south. I find it amazingly stupid that he missed the Seekonk River only a few hundred yards east of the Hurricane barrier. That is where a large portion of the blocked storm surge would be going.

He also claims that in a replay of the 1938 hurricane low laying Long Island NY would be decimated and Newport RI would be spared similar destruction because of the elevation. Granted the Newport Mansions are built on ocean front granite bluffs south of the city, but the city itself is built around a natural harbor and could receive substantial flooding.

Additionally a graphic shown in the video implies flooding miles inland. Hardly, a major portion of the land around Narragansett Bay rises up to between 50 and 100 feet in less than a quarter mile from shore. The major problems would occur in the small harbor towns and in southern RI along Block Island sound where the topography is predominantly sandy beaches, tidal ponds and salt marshes, same areas decimated in 1938.

A lot of over development has occurred along the coast and a major hurricane would be costly, but Providence (formally known as the city of seven hills in colonal times) is not New Orleans and Rhode Island is not a flat coastal plain like Florida. Informing people they need to be prepared for the possibility of a big weather event, especially a hurricane, is important. I just don't like it when inaccurate information is added to sell a prediction.

AccuWeather needs to add topography to their list of Meteorologist study topics.

Sunday, March 19, 2006

Video - Moby Dick at 2955 Feet


Looks like a Sperm Whale by the shape of the jaw and flukes.

Sunday, March 12, 2006

Odd Ball Cap - Story

Have you ever saved something, forgot about it, and then found it years later. Such is the provenance of the item pictured below, with one odd twist; the ship's name doesn't match the current hull number.

(Click on Photo to see a current USS Rhode Island ball cap)

Story of the Ball Cap's origin:
In the summer of 1982 I was home in Rhode Island on leave from my first submarine home ported in Charleston SC/King Bay GA. (Off crew was in Charleston, boat refit and deployed from Kings Bay). Home for me was North Kingstown, RI and the New England village of Wickford.

While at home on leave I was invited by a neighbor to crew for a day of sailing on Narragansett Bay. The sailboat was a 35' sloop, so two could handle it with no problem. The winds were typical for a summer on Narragansett Bay about 1o knots or less in the morning increasing to 15+ in the afternoon if a good sea breeze kicked in from the southwest.

Around noon time somewhere about a half mile off Quonset Point near Hope island I spotted this ball cap floating in the water. Grabbing a boat hook I quickly fished the above hat out of the bay. Having been a machinist at Electric Boat's Quonset Point facility before joining the Navy I knew that some yardbird working on the waterfront probably lost the hat and it ended up in the bay. At the end of the day I rinsed the seawater out of the ball cap, dried it out and put it away in the stuff I had stored at home, then forgot about it.

From some reason that hat has followed me from closet to storage, seabag to foot locker and cellar to attic.

So what's so odd about that ball cap?
First it is not an official US Navy ships ball cap, it was produced and sold to local Electric Boat shipyard workers taking pride in producing a Trident submarine named after their state.
Second the name and hull number were actually correct at the time. On Jan 19, 1981 the keel was laid for the SSBN 730 hull and it was at that time designated to become the USS Rhode Island.

It was not until the after death of Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson on Sept. 1, 1983 while in office that the intended SSBN 730 naming was changed from USS Rhode Island to USS Henry M. Jackson. The announcement of this change was made by then President Ronald Reagan on Sept. 9, 1983.

The Democrat from the state of Washington was a strong advocate of the Trident Submarine program and a leading member of the Senate Armed Services committee.

Believing in a strong national defense, supporter of human rights and advocate for free market economies many of Senator Jackson's former Assistants went on to become key figures in the Reagan and George W. Bush administrations. These Assistants include Richard Pearl, Paul Wolfowitz and Douglas Feith.

The USS Henry M. Jackson (SSBN 730) is the only Trident submarine not named in honor of a state. The USS Henry M. Jackson was commissioned on Oct. 6, 1984.

Ten Trident hulls and a little less than ten years later on July 9, 1994 the SSBN 740 hull was commissioned as the USS Rhode Island (SSBN 740).

The USS Henry M. Jackson is home ported in Bangor WA. and the USS Rhode Island out of Kings Bay GA.

Another odd bit of trivia, long serving Rhode Island Senator John Chafee who died in 1999 while in office also had a Navy ship named after him, the USS Chafee (DDG-90). Senator John Chafee served as Secretary of the Navy from 1969 to 1972.

I've never worn that ball cap and don't know if many still exist but I'll still hang on to if not for any other reason than I think it's a bit odd.

Friday, March 10, 2006

Cassini finds evidence of Liquid Water on Enceladus

NASA may not be gushing about recent evidence that Saturn's moon Enceladus may have liquid water erupting like geysers but they should certainly be excited. This could is the first evidence of liquid water near the surface of a planet's moon.

Cassini spacecraft Photo of Moon Enceladus
(Source: NASA/JPL)

From NASA'S press release: NASA's Cassini Discovers Potential Liquid Water on Enceladus

"We realize that this is a radical conclusion -- that we may have evidence for liquid water within a body so small and so cold," said Dr. Carolyn Porco, Cassini imaging team leader at Space Science Institute, Boulder, Colo. "However, if we are right, we have significantly broadened the diversity of solar system environments where we might possibly have conditions suitable for living organisms."

High-resolution Cassini images show icy jets and towering plumes ejecting large quantities of particles at high speed. Scientists examined several models to explain the process. They ruled out the idea that the particles are produced by or blown off the moon's surface by vapor created when warm water ice converts to a gas. Instead, scientists have found evidence for a much more exciting possibility -- the jets might be erupting from near-surface pockets of liquid water above 0 degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit), like cold versions of the Old Faithful geyser in Yellowstone.

An interesting Cassini image and description of the Enceladus geyser's plumes can be found here.

Additionally an audio podcast is available here from NASA describing the evidence and how surprised the Scientists were with this find.

Thursday, March 09, 2006

Video - Iran's (Whale) Nahang 1

MEMRI TV has the video clip up of Iran's Nahang 1 submarine. If it isn't on the Home page here then go to the search page here and search for clip# 1065.

There isn't much information to be found about this new domestically produced mini-sub other than it looks different than the previous one Bubblehead had photos of here.

Looks a bit like a fat propane cylinder with a sail on it, but that's just me. Do you think anyone in the Iranian Navy calls them "pig" boats? Probably not...

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Hotter than the Interior of the Sun

When I read this the science geek came out in me and I had to post it.

LiveScience.com:
Record Set for Hottest Temperature on Earth: 3.6 Billion Degrees in Lab


The Sun (Source: NASA)

Scientists at Sandia National laboratories produced superheated gas exceeding temperatures of 2 billion degrees Kelvin. That's 3.6 billion degrees Fahrenheit hotter than the interior of the Sun, the hottest temperature ever produced by man. This was achieved with a device called the Z machine, the largest X-ray generator in the world.

The interesting part of this achievement for me is that project Scientists did not expect the resulting temperature and repeated the experiment several times to confirm what they had done. This non-nuclear experiment also resulted in another unexpected result, energy output was greater what was put in.

Sandia researchers still aren't sure how the machine achieved the new record. Part of it is probably due to the replacement of the tungsten steel wires with slightly thicker steel wires, which allow the plasma ions to travel faster and thus achieve higher temperatures.

One thing that puzzles scientists is that the high temperature was achieved after the plasma's ions should have been losing energy and cooling. Also, when the high temperature was achieved, the Z machine was releasing more energy than was originally put in, something that usually occurs only in nuclear reactions.

Some hot basic science producing some cool results.

Iran - its only going to get ugly from here...

The lead Iranian nuclear negotiator Hassan Rowhani has let it slip that they were fooling the Europeans and stalling for time in order to finish a nuclear fuel processing facility in Isfahan.

Mr. Rowhani addressed the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution and told his audience: "When we were negotiating with the Europeans in Tehran we were still installing some of the equipment at the Isfahan site … In reality, by creating a tame situation, we could finish Isfahan."

Of course the reason for the deception and lies by the Iranians is to continue “peaceful nuclear work” and it is the west that is conducting a broad disinformation campaign against Iran.

Meanwhile back in Tehran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called on the United Nations nuclear agency to compensate Iran for its suspension of nuclear activities in 2003. In addition Iran warned that if the issue of it’s nuclear program should go to the UN Security council, it would begin large-scale enrichment of uranium.

Apparently Mahmoud and Hassan need to talk on whether their nuclear enrichment program ever really stopped!

Also ABC News is reporting today that the most deadly armor piercing IEDs found in Iraq are, get this, made in Iran.

"I think the evidence is strong that the Iranian government is making these IEDs, and the Iranian government is sending them across the border and they are killing U.S. troops once they get there," says Richard Clarke, former White House counterterrorism chief and an ABC News consultant. "I think it's very hard to escape the conclusion that, in all probability, the Iranian government is knowingly killing U.S. troops."

I feel something is going to break shortly, the rhetoric is increasing from the US Administration and even some of the Europeans are out of character and requesting Iran halt “all nuclear research activities”.

If it comes to the UN Security council Russia and China may opposed any imposition of sanctions on Iran. Russia is deeply involved in the Iran’s nuclear power program and China has recently made large oil purchasing agreements with Tehran. Therefore, the US may need to create an outside coalition to keep the pressure on Iran.

What does the Iranian Revolutionary Guards commanders think of all the speculation of possible US military action if things continue to degrade? Not much, according to them we’re only bluffing.

Deception and belligerence from a Middle Eastern state and purveyor of terrorism, where have we seen that before?

Update on belligerence 3/8/06 - 18:30 est : Iran today threatened the United States with "harm and pain" . A developing story at the Drudge Report is that Iran already has enough enriched uranium gas to produce 10 nuclear weapons .

And the UN's IAEA chief ElBaradei is urging Western and Iranian leaders to "lower the rhetoric".

Monday, March 06, 2006

It 's been one year

It has been one year since I started the Lubber’s Line “Hundreds of Fathoms” blog and I guess it’s a tradition to create a post recapping the year, bragging where appropriate and evaluating the blog’s evolution.

To shipmates, friends and comment contributors.
First I would like to thank all those who stopped by for an occasional read and/or to contribute comments. Your input and conversation has been much appreciated even if I didn’t respond to all your comments. Everyone has something to contribute and I’ve enjoyed this adventure in blogging thus far.

To my fellow submarine bloggers in my blogroll, “you guys are killing my content!!” just kidding. I do spend more time reading your content than writing mine but that’s only because I enjoy your posts just as much as writing something of my own.

Hat tip to the ones that got me initially interested in doing a blog, Bubblehead at The Stupid Shall be Punished and Bothenook at A Geezer’s Corner. I’m back to six hours or less of sleep in a twenty four period because of you two. Now all I need is someone to wake me up with a 10,000 candle flashlight and tell me I’m late for watch, geeees…. Wait, my six year old son kind of does that already, so I guess I'm all set.

Links
I’ve read that most blogs are abandoned after two to three months so after a year I’m doing ok. Thanks to those who have linked this blog and kept me going; Alex Nooze –The Nooze Wire, Chap -Chapomatic, MM1(SS) -Four Knots to Nowhere, Gus -Gus Van Horn, Vigilis -Molten Eagle, Photios -Photios, PigBoatSailor -The Discomfort of Thought, WillyShake -Unconsidered Trifles and anyone else I've missed.

Additionally other Bloggers that linked here:
The Mudville Gazette – on Milblogging with open sourced info
Outside the Beltway – on Chinese spying
CDR Salamander – on the XO door going missing
EagleSpeak – on the USS San Francisco and Nav charts

I also contribute to these primarily News Sites and get links back as well:
TheSubReport – thanks to Eric
UltraQuiteNoMore – thanks to Joel

Favorite Posts
Life can be too serious so I’ve tried to add a bit of humor to my posting now and then, therefore two of my favorite posts are “Does Santa Wear Dolphins?” and “Coryphaenidae qualified kleptomania”.

On a more serious tone what I feel are some of my better posts were “China IFF?”, “Between Two Worlds Surface/Submerged”, “Milblogging With Open Source Information”, “An Un-Conventionally Armed SSBN”, “Alvin (DSV-2) to Start Last Refit”, “Trident I (C4) Missile System Retired”, “Submarines True Systems of Transformation” and a progression of posts attempting to analyze the USS San Francisco grounding on Jan 08 2005.

Lessons learned
As far as I can tell I haven’t made any major “Oh Sh*t!!! I shouldn’t have done that” kind of postings but then again I haven’t tried to be controversial and stuck to mostly facts with only a little commentary.

I have broken a number of blog rules regarding getting and keeping readers. I post infrequently (not daily) and at different times. Responding to comments can sometimes take me a day if at all. I chose a topic with a limited audience. I provide little commentary to get readers juiced, sticking to flat news. Finally I haven’t participated in any of those “open posts” or carnival of …. type of cross-postings and I haven’t done any serious commenting over at the Big Boys to get noticed. All this means is that the site averages about 40 hits a day or about 14,750 to date. I would like to generate more traffic but hey it’s not a business just a hobby.


Evolution of the blog
As far as content I think it’s been fairly consistent on the topics of military, submarines and the sea; but as I said a lot of what I post has limited appeal. Therefore I think I’m going to include more stuff outside of what I have posted in the past, much like my fellow submarine bloggers do.

That’s the goal for year two, refine what I currently post and increase the range of topics I cover, we’ll see how I do. - LL

Saturday, March 04, 2006

Sub Culture - Contrast as Video

Demonstrators at the Faslane Submarine base in 2005.

5 minutes at outside the Faslane submarine base Scotland.

And somewhere in the North Atlantic on a US Trident Submarine...


45 seconds on the surface in the cold North Atlantic.

Lubber's take:
When we were young our parents protected us from the dangers of the world and gave us the freedom to be idealistic and carefree. Some of us grow up with our adult responsibilities and plot a course to follow. Others drift without a rudder in a sea of popular causes enjoying their own chaotic music.

Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Pentagon mulling 'stealth sharks' to patrol the seas

Now this is an odd coincidence I just did a post of U.S. Navy Submarines named "Shark" and then I read this link Pentagon mulling 'stealth sharks' to patrol the seas: New Scientist from The Drudge Report. An excerpt:

"The Pentagon hopes to exploit sharks' natural ability to glide quietly through the water, sense delicate electrical gradients and follow chemical trails," says the report, carried in next Saturday's New Scientist.

"By remotely guiding the sharks' movements they hope to transform the animals into stealth spies, perhaps capable of following vessels without being spotted."

The unusual project is being funded by the Pentagon's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which pioneered the Internet as a platform for robust communications.

In my previous post I made fun of the fish kind of shark, now it appears my biting humor has failed me. As Vigilis at the Molten Eagle blog would say "Submarines are always silent and strange".

Tuesday, February 28, 2006

February Photos in RI

A short Coastal Southern Rhode Island photo essay to give my new digital camera a test run.

I found that only working people are on the water at the end of February. Temp was hovering around 30F with a NW wind at 15 knots and a clear blue sky. Made for some clean shots without over indulgent tourists from NY, NJ, Boston and Providence clogging the view in oversexed stinkpots and plastic blow boats. (Click on each photo for larger view)

Trawlers docked in the port of Galilee RI.


Converted this shot to B/W - thought it was a nice effect with the rigging.


Beavertail Light with frozen groundwater coming from the cliff.


Solitary Trawler working inshore.


Tug and Tow off Point Judith RI heading south in Block Island Sound.


Lobster boats in upper Galilee harbor.


The R/V Endeavor docked at the URI Narragansett Bay Campus.


Stern shot of the Research Vessel R/V Endeavor.

Some people love looking at city skylines and others fields of corn but give me a broad blue horizon and a ship designed to work at sea any day.

Happy Anniversity - The Sub Report





Happy Annniversity to TheSubReport.

Congrats on a 4.0 job in your first year of service. - LL

Saturday, February 25, 2006

Channel Surf - Recommendations Sunday 2/26

Couple of recommendations for TV watching tonight Sunday 2/26.

At 20:00 EST, that's 8:00 pm to Junior Officers, National Geographic Channel presents Explorer: “Super Sub” (Hat tip - thesubreport.com) Also airs: 2/26 -11pm, 2/27 - 3pm

There is a submarine - part sub killer, part terrorist hunter and part spy - that is so unparalleled in its capability to impact world events that the Navy has kept it a secret. Until now. Join NGC as Explorer travels the globe to classified facilities, foreign navies, and top secret labs to bring viewers the story of the newest and most advanced member of the U.S. nuclear-powered submarine force - the USS Texas. Get an unprecedented look at the future of naval warfare: Unmanned Undersea Vehicles (UUVs).

At 21:00 EST, again that's 9:00 pm, The History Channel presents "Titanic's Final Moments - missing pieces" . History Channel preview video available here.

In August 2005, John Chatterton and Richie Kohler, hosts of Deep Sea Detectives, led an expedition to the wreck of RMS Titanic. Diving two and a half miles down in Russian submersibles, they searched outside the known debris field for new evidence. On their final dive they made an extraordinary find: two large intact sections of the bottom hull of the Titanic in pristine condition with the red bottom paint still on them.

For four months, a team of historians, marine architects, and engineers has been conducting a forensic analysis of this find. All agree that it's the most significant new discovery since the wreck was located in 1985. Analysis is ongoing, but preliminary indications are that these bottom sections will change our understanding of how the ship broke apart, and rewrite the story of the final moments of the Titanic.

I meet Richie Kohler one of the show's hosts about a month ago while he was promoting the book "Shadow Divers" about the discovery and identification of a lost WWII German U-Boat. Richie discussed this season's premier episode of "Deep Sea Detectives" about the Titanic. Because of the wreck's depth he made two excursions on the Russian MIR deep diving submersible for the show. As the brief description above indicates he felt the analysis of what they found may become controversial.

Check you local listing to confirm airing dates and times.

Friday, February 24, 2006

Shark Roundup

I don't have much right now so here is a short Photo essay of sharks.

A collection of US Navy steel Sharks.

USS Shark SS-8 (Source: US Navy, Naval Historical Center)
1903 -1922 decommissioned and later sunk as target.


USS Shark SS-174 (Source: US Navy, Naval Historical Center)
1936-1942 Lost with all hands off Menado, Celebes, on 11 February 1942.


USS Shark SS-314 (Source: US Navy)
1943 -1944 Lost with all hands October 1944 in the Luzon Strait.


USS Shark SSN-591 (Source: US Navy)
1960-1990 decommissioned and scrapped.

Fake sharks digital and rubber
.


Fake shark photo from Internet (Source: National Geographic)


Holy Sardine Batman!

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

China - IFF?

IFF = Identification Friend or Foe

When I think of China, I end up falling into one of two mindsets. On the one hand, I tend think of both the ancient and modern Chinese civilizations their contributions to the worlds of art, science and trade. I also see China’s current economic growth as a sign of prosperity for the Chinese people, a change from an isolationist past and possibly a catalyst to a more democratic government. Then I think of the other China, the one of Tiananmen Square oppression, political executions, millions dead in purges and a history of confrontation and friction with its immediate neighbors. Like most communist nations China has a terrible history when it comes to human rights.

The recent disclosure of an underground submarine facility at the Jianggezhuang Submarine Base in China had me pondering my two China paradox. What exactly is China a political friend or foe, an economic competitor or trading partner? For those who discuss such things there is debate and disagreement on China’s exact relationship with the United States. This is the case even within the Bush administration.

One school of thought is that direct armed conflict with China is impossible. The logic here is that economic interdependence and globalization makes direct conflict too costly for either party and therefore the most serious problems will be resolved through dialog. This theory is called commercial liberalism (pdf).

Thomas P.M. Barnett author of the book “The Pentagon’s New Map” wrote an article for Esquire titled “The Chinese Are Our Friends” last November that comes close to the commercial liberalism position. But Mr. Barnett’s chief and continuing complaint seems to be with what he calls “proponents of Big War“ the Navy and Air Force leadership that advocate large and expensive weapon systems. He implies that this “Big War” crowd is self motivated and is using inflated China threat claims to justify big ticket weapons procurement. From October 2001 to June 2003 Thomas Barnett served as Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformations, Office of the Secretary of Defense.

The opposing opinion comes directly from the recently released Pentagon's 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) which states that China has the "greatest potential" to overtake the present U.S. supremacy unless the United States acts to counter that by developing new capabilities of its own. (Listen to the NPR report with a brief summary on the QDR from Feb 9 here.) The QDR cites expanding Chinese military capabilities and modernization, recommending the positioning of six aircraft carriers and 60% of the attack submarines in the Pacific. From the QDR on China:

Chinese military modernization has accelerated since the mid-to-late 1990s in response to central leadership demands to develop military options against Taiwan scenarios. The pace and scope of China’s military build-up already puts regional military balances at risk. China is likely to continue making large investments in high-end, asymmetric military capabilities, emphasizing electronic and cyber-warfare; counter-space operations; ballistic and cruise missiles; advanced integrated air defense systems; next generation torpedoes; advanced submarines; strategic nuclear strike from modern, sophisticated land and sea-based systems; and theater unmanned aerial vehicles for employment by the Chinese military and for global export. These capabilities, the vast distances of the Asian theater, China’s continental depth, and the challenge of en route and in-theater U.S. basing place a premium on forces capable of sustained operations at great distances into denied areas.

Is the Pentagon overstating a China’s threat? I’m of the opinion that they maybe overstating China’s current capabilities, particularly when it comes to SSBN submarines, but they are also trying to read the tea leaves by evaluating trends within the Peoples Liberation Army and Navy (PLAN). Planning for the "what ifs" is what the Pentagon does, so they're asking themselves what is the PLAN’s long term plan? China may not be able to challenge the U.S. military today but we would be foolish to let a still communist and oppressive government do so tomorrow. The QDR recommends the right force restructuring, hopefully the PLAN will continue to stumble in their modernization plans.

Sunday, February 19, 2006

Shadows of the Past


P3 overflight (Source: US Navy)

Saturday, February 18, 2006

Top Gun II - Brokeback Squadron

Who knew?


And they make jokes about submariners! Geees....

Sorry, it may be a little adolescent but I thought it was funny.

Sunday, February 12, 2006

Didn't we hear this before?

The news.telegraph.co.uk has two news articles up "10,000 would die' in A-plant attack on Iran" and "US prepares military blitz against Iran's nuclear sites". Those headlines sound almost like they could have been written before the Iraq war in 2003. Just substitute Iraq for Iran and WMD for Nuclear and you get the idea. The hand wringing has started in the European press over possible American preemptive plans (the Bush doctrine) over the Iranian nuclear weapon aspirations.

The first news report quotes a study done by the Oxford Research Group titled "Consequences of a War (pdf link)" which was written in October of 2002 by Professor Paul Rogers is Professor of Peace Studies at the University of Bradford, about .... (insert drum roll).... you guessed it "Iraq" and then rehashed for a possible conflict with "Iran". Here are some excerpt for the telegraph Iran news piece and the 2002 Iraq paper:

Expanded confrontation.
(The Telegraph - on the 2006 Iran report)The attack would result in "a protracted military confrontation" involving Israel, Lebanon and some Gulf states.

(Oxford Research Group - on Iraq in 2002 ) In such circumstances, and given that Hezbollah militia in Southern Lebanon have recently received some thousands of short-range missiles from Iran via Damascus, Israel might suddenly find its northern cities under attack and would respond with forceful counteraction against militias and Syrian forces in Lebanon.

It's all about oil.
(The Telegraph - on the 2006 Iran report) Iran could still retaliate with suicide speedboats, possibly leading to crippling rises in the price of oil.

(Oxford Research Group - on Iraq in 2002 )Attacks against oil tankers and other aspects of the oil and gas supply chain may be mounted, possibly using surrogate paramilitaries, with the hope of affecting the price of oil.

The rise of anti-American hostility
(The Telegraph - on the 2006 Iran report) Prof Rogers, professor of peace studies at Bradford University, says that American military action would also have a unifying effect on the rule of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and exacerbate anti-American hostility in the Islamic world.

(Oxford Research Group - on Iraq in 2002 )Taken with the current and very widespread perception in the region of Israel as a client state armed largely by the United States, and of Saudi Arabia controlled by an excessively wasteful and wealthy neo-feudal elite, a further increase in the anti-American mood in the region and consequent support for oppositional paramilitaries such as al-Qaida is likely to be the longer term consequences of an enforced regime change and possibly even a military occupation of Iraq.


The Telegraph ends the article by trying to credit the Oxford Research Group with predicting the Iraq insugency by saying "In a similar briefing before the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Oxford group predicted that Saddam Hussein's regime could easily be overwhelmed but that the country would become a hotbed of insurgency." (emphasis added). But the actual report in 2002 was a little more ambiguous:

(Oxford Research Group - on Iraq in 2002 )It is also possible that a paramilitary movement could develop from within Iraq. While there is abundant evidence of the unpopularity of the Saddam Hussein regime, it is certainly possible that internal opposition to US occupation and the subsequent installing of a client regime would result in an evolving insurgency. Internal opposition to the current regime does not equate with the future acceptance of foreign occupation.

So here we are again with a rerun of the old predictions (wider regional conflict, oil crisis, and greater anti-American feelings) without a single printed word on any of the positive results (no regional war, free elections and constitution in Iraq, a greater movement toward freedom across the broader middle east, the lives of millions changed for the better without fear and intimidation from their government) with the overthrow of Saddam. Obviously the Islamofacists who use religion to obtain power and control followers are threatened with recent changes in Iraq and are lashing back with terror tactics.

The Iranian terror state is also threatened with internal descent and the external rising demand of democracy. Iran, like the old Soviet Union, can be put down internal descent for a time with police state tactics, and like Iraq before stall, intimidate and deceive the IAEA and UN over it's nuclear weapons program. However, what the European press needs to understand is that nuclear weapons in the hands of a government that sees terrorism and the killing of innocents as a political tool is likely to use it once they have it. All the hand wringing over American military contingency plans including, the use of Trident SSBNs armed with conventional warheads as stated in the news.telegraph's second news piece, isn't going to change that.

Time is running out and the Iranian terror state knows it, they will become more belligerent just as Saddam did before them.

Tuesday, February 07, 2006

Crazy Ivan not just for submarines

If you thought the Crazy Ivan maneuver was just something that only the old Soviet Subs did check out this video link. Truly impressive super manoeuvrable airshow - recommend watching in full screen.

My guess a Sukhoi Su-37 Super Flanker or earlier variant. The maneuvers demonstrated are called "Kulbit", "Bell" and "Cobra". I would have to say whoever tried them first had to be a little crazy and may have been named Ivan.